Alyaza Birze (November 9)
where have you been?
busy with the election. obviously, things did not go well. i now have more free time, so blogs should be more routine. there's much to talk about.
my thoughts
my honest opinion is this is basically a worst-case scenario. you can’t even say Harris ran a bad campaign–the Trump ground game was nonexistent and he has had maybe the worst week in recent history. Elon Musk’s stupid ass made a voting software that doesn’t work and has shit data; he probably trafficked canvassers to work on it. but it’s like it didn’t matter. calling Puerto Ricans subhuman garbage and being identified as a fascist by the very people who worked with him clearly didn’t matter either. the results are just a consistent meltdown with no obvious analogue in recent election history. if you bet on NJ being within about 5 or IL within about 10 you would be diagnosed criminally insane. pretty much nothing implied this would happen.
i don’t know what is to be done about this, but: you will probably not ever see a liberal Supreme Court in your life. write it off, the best case is now 6-3 with a hard-right swing vote. you will probably not see a female president any time soon (if in your lifetime). write that off. the Senate is gone for Democrats for the next decade–with the number of Republican seats in the Senate there is basically no chance of Democratic control again before 2028. and while the jury is still out, don’t count on Democrats pulling it out in the House either–Trump is probably 50/50 to get a trifecta right now.
the Democratic Party? i’m sure you can infer this but it’s about to take a hard shift to the right. “woke” politics are almost certainly going to take the fall here because Kamala Harris is a liberal-coded Black woman from California and comes off as scary to the electorate; Elon Musk’s $200m in anti-trans fearmongering ads also “worked.” Dems are probably going to run a white man in 2028–in the best case scenario expect Pete Buttigieg, or Josh Shapiro, or some other default character with positions you’re going to fucking hate more than you hate Harris running to the center on things. the Democratic Party is in the wilderness again, but worse this time, because somehow Donald Trump appears to have been perceived as the moderate candidate of the two.
on that note, the media–the fourth estate? they’re also cooked. charitably they’re a helpful institution that has been tasked with impossibly trying to clean a poisoned information well. less charitably they are a literally useless institution who has done the poisoning, with the result that Kamala Harris could ever be seen as more extremist than Donald Trump. i can’t tell you what the future holds with certainty but, given the anger of liberals at WaPo/LAT for abdicating their endorsements this seems like a death blow to what’s left of media credibility. the coming years will be unkind. but if you think this election was fucking nightmarish, it’s probably not going to get better.
with RFK potentially in the driver’s seat for health-related measures, you also might as well forget the COVID-19 pandemic. the damage done by this guy having his hands anywhere near public health will be generational. COVID is the least of it.
we are so fucked on climate change–Trump is a climate arsonist at the best of times. you are literally counting on market forces to save us here, because the government sure as fuck won’t.
the prognosis for labor unions and antitrust is real bad. the NLRB will be gutted, and probably it and/or the National Labor Relations Act will be found unconstitutional and put our labor laws literally back in the 1930s. the FTC and CFPB are the same way–don’t expect them to do anything useful anymore, expect them primarily to be used to hurt people. people literally waited until Biden took power to file union elections and push for reforms that fall under the FTC’s purview because of how shit things were under Trump. expect unionization rates to decline further, and current union momentum to be severely stunted.
and–this was the issue with the least delta between candidates, but–i’m now absolutely confident Palestine is fucked, and we are now locked into watching literally millions of Palestinians get actively killed by a Trump-supported Israel and Gaza annexed and settled. (as a reminder, Trump already signed off on annexing the Golan Heights illegally.)
all in all: it is going to be bad. it is going to be really bad. it is not doomer to say that, and sugarcoating it is unhelpful. it is kind of gutting to say, but: if you live in a red state and have any ability whatsoever to leave (even if that would require couch surfing and lacking a stable place to live), i would exercise that opportunity at this point. federalism might blunt the worst excesses of the federal government working in tandem with the 20+ Hitlerite state governments.
finally, and depressingly, the left is not in a serious position to do anything here. in lot of ways, what’s happened tonight is as devastating for left-wing politics as liberal politics–many of the demographics swinging to the right are ones that groups like DSA have seen success with (in unions, tenant organizing, and elections). but that all looks reverted now, badly. and non-electoral power like large-scale union organizing is going to be much harder without a sympathetic NLRB (under Biden unionizations are up massively and so are wins–it’s like double the number of unionizations and 30% more wins or thereabouts).
in short: the barbarism is here, and there’s almost nothing we can do about it besides hope Trump is actually too stupid and incompetent to do anything in the next 4 years. if he does literally anything, it will be worse. we will backslide. people will die. harm reduction by vote is over. we’re now doing harm triage for the next four years. it’s going to be bleak fucking work, and that’s the best i can say of it.
how did the left do in 2024's elections?
despite the above dourness, it was actually a pretty good cycle for the Democratic Socialists of America, the organization i am a member of and the primary organization i consider serious within the contemporary American left. by my count, 75 DSA members won their elections on November 5th, 21 lost them, and 15 races are still to be determined--this is a win rate of 67.5%, and in terms of net wins it's a gain of 18.
all of this is remarkable compared to the win rate of other left-wing third parties/groups, which is an abysmal 17% across 218 races i've tracked so far (in other words: 37 wins, and 181 losses). of those, 20 are Green Party wins, 13 of them are Vermont Progressive Party wins (mostly electoral fusion, where they also ran on the Democratic ballot line), 3 are Richmond Progressive Alliance wins (all on the Democratic Party line), and one American Communist Party (MAGA Communist) win. the MAGA Communist win was a write-in campaign by Christopher Helali for Orange County, Vermont high bailiff (which is basically a cop position but also does nothing).
that is, for the record, no wins for the California National Party; the Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party; the Oregon Progressive Party; the South Carolina Workers Party; Socialist Party USA; the Socialist Workers Party; people running only on the Working Families Party line (almost all of their candidates run Democratic first, Working Families second); the Working Class Party; or the Workers Party of Massachusetts.
and as near as i can tell this is, despite their wins, the worst ever presidential cycle for the Greens, who have won an abysmal 15% or so of their races across 129 candidates. their previous worst was in 2016, when just 16.25% of their candidates won--but that year they ran over 300. to have their win rate this low despite running one-third the number of candidates (and only one-half the number from 2020, when they ran 239) is embarrassing at best and catastrophic at worst.
in my mind this is yet another affirmation that third-partyism without a base (and/or electoral reform) is a total dead end. if you want my advice: join DSA. but if you won't do that at least join an actual organization (the Working Families Party, the Socialist Rifle Association, your local Food Not Bombs, really anything that isn't just vibes) instead of letting yourself and your activism be steered by the moment. the next four years are probably going to be quite bad, and being in an organization will provide you the best opportunities to do meaningful things.